“We’re getting noticed,” said Seto Baghdoyan, director of forensic audits and investigative services at the GAO, in an interview with MIT Technology Review.
The documents don’t offer a crystal ball into Musk’s plans, but they suggest a blueprint, or at least an indicator, of where his newly formed and largely unaccountable task force is looking to make cuts.
DOGE’s footprint in Washington has quickly grown. Its members are reportedly setting up shop at the Department of Health and Human Services, the Labor Department, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (which provides storm warnings and fishery management programs), and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The developments have triggered lawsuits, including allegations that DOGE is violating data privacy rules and that its “buyout” offers to federal employees are unlawful.
When citing the GAO reports in conversations on X, Musk and DOGE supporters sometimes blur together terms like “fraud,” “waste,” and “abuse.” But they have distinct meanings for the GAO.
The office found that the US government made an estimated $236 billion in improper payments in the year ending September 2023—payments that should not have occurred. Overpayments make up nearly three-quarters of these, and the share of the money that gets recovered from this type of mistake is in the “low single digits” for most programs, Baghdoyan says. Others are payments that didn’t have proper documentation.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean fraud, where a crime occurred. Measuring that is more complicated.
“An [improper payment] could be the result of fraud and therefore, fraud could be included in the estimate,” says Hannah Padilla, director of financial management and assurance at the GAO. But at the time the estimates of improper payments are prepared, it’s impossible to say how much of the total has been misappropriated. That can take years for courts to determine. In other words, “improper payment” means that something clearly went wrong, but not necessarily that anyone willfully misrepresented anything to benefit from it.
Then there’s waste. “Waste is anything that the person who’s speaking thinks is not a good use of government money,” says Jetson Leder-Luis, an economist at Boston University who researches fraudulent federal payments. Defining such waste is not in the purview of the GAO. It’s a subjective category, and one that covers much of Musk’s criticism of what he sees as politically motivated or “woke” spending.
