The explosive growth of ecommerce is testing banks’ ability to serve merchants — and many are falling short.
According to Capgemini’s World Payments Report 2026, released Sept. 25, merchants face mounting losses from unreliable bank payment systems, opening the door for digital-first payment providers to capture market share.
The report found merchants experience up to nine hours of payment downtime annually, a costly gap in an era when ecommerce depends on seamless transactions. Satisfaction levels with banks’ merchant services remain weak, especially among small businesses (15%) and mid-sized merchants (22%). Even so, 66% of merchants still prefer banks for their broader financial needs — signaling that traditional providers could regain ground if they modernize.
Banks’ onboarding process highlights the divide. Setting up a new merchant can take up to seven days and cost $496 on average. By contrast, digital rivals enable merchants to go live in under 60 minutes for about $214. The friction costs businesses both revenue and patience.
“With 40% of merchants on the move, the message is clear: banks risk falling out of the merchant ecosystem entirely,” said Jeroen Hölscher, global head of payment services at Capgemini.
Banks, ecommerce merchants and digital payments
Digital payment firms are also moving faster in technology adoption. The report found 60% of payment specialists have deployed generative AI, compared with 41% of banks. They also lead in payment orchestration (70% vs. 47%), central bank digital currency pilots (48% vs. 23%), and digital identity frameworks (59% vs. 38%).
Fraud and reliability remain pain points for merchants. Only 26% of banks express confidence in their fraud-prevention systems. Merchants report losing an average of 2% of revenue to payment fraud, while outages continue to erode trust.
The report underscores how these shifts are reshaping global commerce. Non-cash transactions, which totaled 1.6 trillion in 2024, are projected to more than double to 3.5 trillion by 2029.
Digital wallets and instant payments are gaining share, rising from 13% of the payment mix in 2020 to 25% in 2024. At the same time, the share of card payments is expected to decline from 65% in 2020 to 52% by 2029, even as total card transactions continue to grow.
Asia-Pacific is driving much of that growth. The region recorded 800 billion digital transactions in 2024, with 21% growth expected in 2025. North America logged about 256 billion digital transactions in 2024 and is forecast to grow at a slower 7% pace this year, as cards remain the dominant method.
Despite losing ground, banks retain key strengths. 78% of merchants cite banks’ strong reputations, while 49% point to their financial stability and 46% to their broader suite of services. The report found eight in 10 merchants would consider switching back if banks could match the cost, speed, and reliability of digital competitors.
Capgemini said banks can still compete by streamlining onboarding, improving reliability, and offering industry-specific value-added services — such as seamless loyalty programs for retailers or delivery integrations for restaurants.
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