A new book from a noted economist seeks to explain the rise of global tariffs and trade barriers.
Branko Milanovic is a former lead economist at the World Bank and currently teaches at the City University of New York and the London School of Economics. He’s an authority on income inequality.
His latest book, “The Great Global Transformation: The United States, China, and the Remaking of the World Economic Order,” is forthcoming in March 2026. The U.K. edition, subtitled “National Market Liberalism in a Multipolar World” and released in June, made the Financial Times’ “Best books of 2025: Economics” list.
The book draws on the author’s original research to argue that the world’s two leading economies — the U.S. and China — have changed in opposite directions over the past 50 years, resulting in “the greatest reshuffling of incomes since the Industrial Revolution,” and that, in turn, is causing political changes that reverse the trend towards globalization.
Trade Wars
First, he demonstrates the relative changes in income between the U.S. and China, as well as Asia and the West generally. He illuminates the data with 35 charts and graphs. Then he analyzes past economic theories, showing they can’t explain whether trade promotes or reduces conflict between nations.
The Great Global Transformation
The theories, he says, failed to foresee that U.S. wage earners and investors would merge into a new labor class that combines high salaries with investment returns via equity stakes such as stock options.
Next, he provides an overview of China’s internal economic and political evolution, especially under Xi Jinping, its president. Milanovic sees China’s opening to private enterprise as different from that of the former communist regimes in Russia and Eastern Europe. He believes China will continue to stand apart on the international stage.
He believes these factors lead to increased nationalism and a retreat from globalization, resulting in trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, and border walls. In Milanovic’s view, “Economic coercion is now considered a normal part of the foreign policy toolkit.”
Despite specialized terminology, Milanovic’s writing is clear even for lay readers. He offers many provocative ideas in just under 200 pages, but no practical business guidance.
However, the book steps back from simplistic daily news bites and places them in the context of a bigger picture. Milanovic draws parallels in political trends across countries and points out that what seems like flip-flopping or policy reversals by Xi and others may be “course corrections” towards a long-term goal. He notes that U.S. nostalgia for post-war dominance is an exception, not the norm.
Merchants who sell or source internationally may find “The Great Global Transformation” fresh and useful as they navigate growth.
