A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric signaled a potential shift in its positioning after BTC’s long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that this cohort has exhibited aggressive accumulation, which previously marked the BTC bottom in Q3 2024.
The LTH realized cap measures the BTC cost basis of investors, holding their allocation for 155 days or more. A sharp increase hints that these long-term holders are in an accumulation phase, parallel with bullish behavior.
Bitcoin LTH net position realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant
As illustrated in the chart, a spike in this metric has preceded bullish rallies in the past. Most recently, the LTH realized cap reached $18 billion on Sept. 8, 2024, after which Bitcoin registered 100% returns over the next few months.
Another key confluence that matches the current bottom setup with September 2024 is the significant drop in open interest. BTC’s OI reached an all-time high of $39 billion in July but dropped by 25% by September. Similarly, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% between Dec. 18 and April 8,
Bitcoin open interest. Source: CoinGlass
The concurrent rise in LTH Realized Cap and a leverage wipeout strongly support the likelihood of a Bitcoin price bottom. However, Bitcoin’s open interest has surged by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, suggesting that the price action following this spike could offer better directional bias in the coming days.
Related: Bitcoiners’ ‘bullish impulse’ on recession may be premature: 10x Research
Bitcoin builds support at $79K
After forming a new yearly low at $74,500 on April 7- April 9, BTC prices have rallied by almost 10% over the past three days. With respect to price levels below the $80,00 level, Glassnode data revealed that BTC had established credible support at the $79,000. In an X post, the data analytics platform mentioned,
“Looking at Cost Basis Distribution, Bitcoin has built notable support at $79K, with ~40K BTC accumulated there. It has also worked through the $82.08K cluster (~51K BTC).”
Bitcoin heatmap based on cost basis distribution. Source: X.com
As illustrated in the April 6- April 11 heatmap, supply distribution highlights investor accumulation patterns. This follows Bitcoin’s rally past $81,000, spurred by a 2.4% US CPI rate and President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, with market sentiment leaning toward cautious optimism for a relief rally.
Likewise, anonymous technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller noted a descending trendline for Bitcoin, with BTC price testing a potential bullish breakout. The analyst said,
“Got to admit, that’s looking very enticing for BTC.”
Bitcoin 1-day chart analysis by Cold Blooded Shiller. Source: X.com
Related: Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
