Just the Tip:
Holiday fares have historically bottomed out about five weeks before Thanksgiving and seven before Christmas, and this year they’re climbing. Set a price alert today, book Thanksgiving by mid-October and Christmas and New Year’s by the end of October, and take the first fare you can live with.
If you usually book holiday flights in November, move that up this year. Airline fares rose 2.7% in August and 23.4% over the 12 months through August 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Sept. 11. Points Path data cited by The Points Guy on Sept. 2 showed Thanksgiving fares running 9% to 13% above last year, Christmas fares 12% to 18% higher, and international holiday fares up 16%.
The October deadline tracks years of fare history. Google Flights data from 2021 through mid-2025 put the lowest Thanksgiving fares about 35 days before departure and the lowest Christmas fares about 51 days out. The Points Guy normally tells readers to book Thanksgiving in early to mid-October and Christmas by Halloween, and NerdWallet puts New Year’s trips on the same end-of-October clock. For 2026, The Points Guy is advising even sooner because it expected prices to climb after Labor Day.
Turn on price tracking in Google Flights for your exact route and dates today, so a drop reaches you by email. When a fare you can live with shows up, book it instead of holding out for a sale.
If your dates can move, fly on the holiday itself. NerdWallet says Thanksgiving Day is generally the cheapest day to fly that week, and it cites Expedia’s 2024 outlook putting Christmas Eve and Christmas Day among the least expensive days around Christmas. For the trip home, NerdWallet points to New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day as the quietest days at the airport. Midweek helps too. Google’s 2025 analysis found Monday through Wednesday flights about 13% cheaper than weekend ones.
Skip the booking-day tricks. Buying on a Tuesday, or any other day, doesn’t reliably get you a cheaper ticket. How far ahead you buy, and which days you fly, move the price.
If a fare is one you’d accept in November, it’s one to buy in October.
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