Declining wallet numbers offer a possible contrarian signal, not confirmation that Bitcoin has reached its low.
Bitcoin may be approaching a local bottom as smaller holders continue to leave the market. Since October 16, the number of non-empty wallets has declined by 30,000.
Santiment found that the total has fallen to nearly 59.95 million.
Local Bottom
The decline comes after weeks of limited price movement, as the crypto asset struggles to regain momentum near $80,000. While fewer wallets may raise concerns about network participation, the trend could also reflect growing frustration among retail holders. According to Santiment, this kind of capitulation can create better conditions for a recovery than a sudden rush of buyers chasing a rally.
But it is also important to note that the price needs to confirm the signal. Bitcoin must hold the $80,000 level and reclaim around $82,500 to strengthen the case for a local bottom. A drop below $79,000, on the other hand, would weaken that outlook.
Doctor Profit recently said that the latest downturn is a correction and not the start of a new bear market. He believes the $80,000 to $81,500 range could act as a major support zone, as it lines up with the average entry prices of Bitcoin treasury companies and spot ETF investors. While short-term holders are still selling, longer-term investors who bought between $60,000 and $70,000 seem reluctant to exit. This steady demand and continued accumulation could help the asset form a local bottom, although the price still needs to confirm that shift.
Not all analysts are convinced Bitcoin’s worst losses are behind it. Ali Martinez, for one, has flagged a historical pattern that could spell trouble for the crypto asset in the final quarter of 2026. BTC posted losses during Q4 of the last three US midterm election years. It fell 16.7% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.
“If that pattern repeats in 2026, Bitcoin could still have more downside ahead before the year ends.”
Institutional and Corporate Buyers
Institutional demand remains volatile. US spot BTC ETFs started the week with $110.34 million in inflows on Monday, offering some relief after recent selling. But the broader picture remains weak. October flows are still negative, as these funds have recorded more than $200 million in net outflows so far.
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On the corporate side of things, Michael Saylor’s Strategy sat out the Bitcoin market this time and chose to ramp up its STRC repurchases instead of adding more BTC to its holdings. Other buyers, however, kept accumulating. Strive made a major move as it purchased 6,182 BTC for $511.4 million. Its total holdings now stand at around 43,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, the Smarter Web Company added another 20 units, bringing its treasury to 2,850 BTC.
