In Bitcoin news on Friday, November 6, BTC heads into the US October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET after closing Thursday at $76,088. BTC USD price is now below its 200-day average for the first time since August 19.
The report itself has been a coin toss. The recent record has not.
🚨 MARKET ALERT: U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT DATA DROPS TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET! 🇺🇸
One number could influence today’s market reaction.
📊 Unemployment Rate
• Previous: 4.2%
• Forecast: 4.2%
Here’s what I’m watching:
🔹 Above 4.2% → A weaker labor market could ease rate-hike concerns and… pic.twitter.com/6Zu5ewzubQ— OwenCarter (@OwenCarter0el) November 6, 2026
A Coinspeaker review of all 104 jobs reports since January 2018 shows Bitcoin was higher 24 hours later after exactly 52 of them. A week later, though, it was lower after each of the last three: down 3.3% in August, 5.2% in September and 3.7% in October.
The setup is already weak. Bitcoin trades at $76,160, down 5.1% in 24 hours, after Thursday’s chip-stock sell-off dragged it from $80,918 to $75,208, its lowest since September 16. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 50 to 28 in a day.
The jobs data also feeds straight into the Fed. Traders on Polymarket now price a 69% chance of a rate hike on December 9, down from 80% a day earlier.
So what does Bitcoin usually do after a jobs report, and can it win back the 200-day line?
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What Does Bitcoin Do After a Jobs Report?
Not much to bet on the first day. The direction only starts to lean after a week, and only slightly.
We measured BTC from the hourly candle of each 8:30 a.m. ET release on Binance, using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release archive for the dates. The October 2025 report, never published because of the government shutdown, is not included.
- First hour: higher after 58 of 104 reports, with an average move of 0.66% either way.
- 24 hours: higher after 52, with a median move of +0.07%, and an average swing of 1.92% either way.
- 7 days: higher after 57, with a median gain of 0.67%.
This year broke into two halves. Bitcoin was higher a week after each of 2026’s first seven jobs reports, by 0.5% to 7.6%. Then it fell after all three since August.
One caveat: a week leaves room for other news to take over. The worst 24 hours in the sample came after the December 2021 report, a 17.1% drop that came with a weekend leverage flush.
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Bitcoin News: Why This Jobs Report Matters for the Fed
Because the Fed is leaning toward a hike, not a cut. It held rates at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, and both dissenters wanted a quarter-point hike.
Thursday’s crash already cooled that bet. Kalshi’s odds of a December hike dropped 10 points in a day, while a hold rose from 22% to 32%.
A strong report would likely push hike odds back up. A weak one would give the Fed room to wait, and with it, one less reason for traders to sell risk.
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BTC Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Reclaim Its 200-Day EMA?
Not yet. BTC sits about $380 under its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $76,540, a line it had held on every daily close since its August breakout.
- Resistance: $76,540, the 200-day EMA, then $79,839, the 50-day EMA. Above that, $81,196, Wednesday’s high.
- Support: $75,208, Thursday’s low, then $74,968, the September 15 low. Below that, $72,598, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView
| Outlook | Trigger | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | A daily close back above $76,540 | $79,839, the 50-day EMA |
| Holding pattern | BTC stays between $74,968 and $76,540 | Range trade while traders digest the jobs data |
| Sell-off | A daily close below $74,968 | $72,598, the 0.5 Fibonacci level |
The jobs report has rarely set Bitcoin’s direction on the day. For traders following Bitcoin news this week, the weekly close against the 200-day EMA will matter more than the payroll number.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
