Coinspeaker
Is Altcoin Season Coming? Here’s What Smart Investors Should Know
With the total crypto market cap finding strong support to hold above the $3 trillion valuation, the market remains divided on the arrival of the altcoin season. With the crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin
BTC
$97 075
24h volatility:
0.3%
Market cap:
$1.92 T
Vol. 24h:
$29.10 B
standing at $1.12 trillion, the dominance of Bitcoin in the market remains more than 60%.
While the massive dominance of Bitcoin over the crypto market clearly signifies the weakness in the altcoin segment, a sect of crypto enthusiasts anticipates a quick turn of the tables. Will the upcoming ease of crypto regulations or approval of new ETFs trigger a new altcoin season?
Technical Insights: The Case for an Altcoin Rally
In a recent tweet by Titan of Crypto, a technical crypto trader has highlighted the possibility of an altcoin season’s arrival. Using the weekly chart of Bitcoin dominance, the higher price ejection in the weekly candle marks a significant altcoin signal.
#Altcoins Rally Incoming 🚀
A bearish divergence is forming on #Bitcoin Dominance's weekly chart. Signs of an altcoin breakout ahead? 👀 pic.twitter.com/1tOwxXM6w4
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) February 9, 2025
The signal is the bearish divergence in the weekly RSI line. As BTC dominance continues to surge, the RSI line is creating a lower high.
This marks a potential decline in Bitcoin dominance, which could trigger the next altcoin season. Adding to the idea of a sharp decline in Bitcoin dominance, a recent X post by Carl Moon reveals a rising wedge pattern.
$BTC Dominance could start dumping any moment now. Those who don't lose faith will be rewarded! pic.twitter.com/DJX5eflFvv
— Carl Moon (@TheMoonCarl) February 9, 2025
Within the pattern, the BTC dominance near 61.38% is likely to break under the local support trendline. With this breakdown, a potential spike in altcoin prices is likely to occur.
Historical Data: The Case Against Altcoin Season
The recent developments in the crypto market, especially in the altcoin segment, have limited the chances of an alt season. In a recent post by Daan Crypto Trades, the Bitcoin vs. Altcoin performance cycle is highlighting a key historical trend.
Bitcoin vs Altcoin Performance This Cycle 👇
When dividing $BTC by the Total Altcoin Market Cap we get a good idea of the relative performance of BTC & Alts.
What we generally see during past cycles is a big move up by $BTC which then outperforms alts, relatively speaking.… pic.twitter.com/xTJ4GvEacp
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) February 9, 2025
Using the chart of the total crypto market cap divided by BTC, the analyst gives the relative performance of Bitcoin and altcoins. The historical trend showcases past cycles where a big move in Bitcoin was followed by sharp surges in the total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This sharp surge reveals a sharp decline in BTC dominance, marking the start of an alt season.
In a recent post by Daan Crypto Trades, the analyst highlighted that 2017 had three altcoin seasons. The chart of BTC dominance vs. total altcoin market cap is yet to achieve a significant high, which would typically signal an altcoin breakout.
Hence, a potential surge in BTC is likely before the next altcoin season.
Furthermore, the sheer amount of altcoins created in the recent cycle and the ease of creating more has resulted in quick dilution. With rising competition, the chances of an alt season have significantly decreased.
This means the current cycle is fundamentally different from previous altcoin season cycles.
Investor Sentiment: What the Smart Money Is Watching
Pitching another counter viewpoint on the altcoin season chances, the altcoin vs. Bitcoin season chart currently stands at a value of 44. An altcoin season typically occurs at a value of 75, while a value of 25 reflects a Bitcoin season.
As the current chart remains under 50, a stronger Bitcoin dominance is clearly visible across the crypto market. Hence, the current conditions in early 2025 suggest limited chances of an altcoin season until the approval of new ETFs.
With easier regulations and the upcoming altcoin ETFs for coins like Solana
SOL
$199.5
24h volatility:
2.9%
Market cap:
$97.12 B
Vol. 24h:
$4.66 B
, Litecoin
LTC
$126.6
24h volatility:
6.9%
Market cap:
$9.55 B
Vol. 24h:
$1.94 B
, and XRP
XRP
$2.46
24h volatility:
1.1%
Market cap:
$141.87 B
Vol. 24h:
$4.05 B
, the institutional flow of funds will likely trigger demand for altcoins, potentially starting the new altcoin season.
Is Altcoin Season Coming? Here’s What Smart Investors Should Know
