What If the Longshoremen’s Strike Had Persisted? Examining the Potential Economic Fallout

The recent strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) briefly halted operations at major East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, including the Port of New York and New Jersey. Though the strike was resolved in a matter of days, the short-lived disruption sparked significant concerns about what might have happened if negotiations had dragged on. Could the U.S. economy have endured a prolonged halt in port operations? What would the broader consequences have been for supply chains, businesses, and consumers?

Key Issues: Wages, Job Security, and Automation


At the heart of the ILA’s demands were calls for substantial wage increases and protections against automation. Union leadership had proposed wage increases as high as 80% over six years, and they sought to limit the potential job losses from the growing use of automated systems at ports. The union’s president, Harold Daggett, framed the strike as a fight not only for economic justice but for the future of longshore jobs in an increasingly automated world.

While automation can offer efficiencies in logistics, the ILA has long contended that unchecked technological advancements could displace thousands of workers in key port cities. Daggett’s push for strong protections underscores the union’s concern about the evolving nature of work and the potential imbalance between technology and human labor in critical sectors.

A Prolonged Strike: Would Supply Chains Have Crumbled?

The brief nature of the strike meant that its immediate effects on the supply chain were limited. However, the question remains: what would have happened if the strike had persisted for weeks or even months? Daggett had warned of widespread disruptions, from stalled car imports to shortages of consumer goods. His predictions included the possibility of layoffs in sectors reliant on imports, such as auto sales and retail, and ripple effects that could have led to economic slowdowns across industries dependent on international trade.

However, not all experts believe these dire predictions would have come to pass. As Matt Powers, a partner at OnPace Partners and a supply chain expert, explained, U.S. companies have demonstrated resilience in the face of supply chain challenges, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many businesses have contingency plans in place, and the private sector, along with government intervention, could have worked swiftly to mitigate the worst outcomes.

In the short term, disruptions in the flow of goods would likely have caused delays, higher transportation costs, and price increases for consumers. Yet, Powers suggests that a prolonged strike might not have led to the catastrophic outcomes that Daggett predicted, thanks to the adaptive measures businesses have already put in place in response to previous crises.

The Economy’s Response: Flexibility and Pressure for Resolution

If the strike had stretched on, pressure from the private sector and the government to resolve the dispute would have mounted quickly. The U.S. economy, heavily reliant on its ports for the import and export of goods, would have had no choice but to adapt. In the past, strikes have led to adjustments such as rerouting shipments, increasing reliance on other ports, and temporary workforce adjustments.

While the potential for significant economic loss—estimated at $5 billion per day—loomed large, the longer the strike dragged on, the more creative solutions would have emerged. Businesses, particularly those in retail and manufacturing, would likely have sought alternative supply routes and suppliers to prevent major disruptions to production and sales.

Automation: A Long-Term Challenge for Labor

One of the more evergreen issues arising from the ILA’s demands was the debate over automation. Even as the strike ends and workers return to their posts, the question of how to balance technological advancement with job security will remain central to labor negotiations in the years to come. Ports around the world are adopting more automation to boost efficiency and reduce costs, and this trend is unlikely to reverse.

For unions like the ILA, this poses a challenge that extends beyond immediate wage negotiations. Striking the right balance between embracing innovation and protecting workers will continue to be a flashpoint in future labor talks. As companies adopt new technologies, the workforce must adapt, and both sides—employers and labor organizations—will need to work together to ensure a fair transition.